Are We Really Responsible for Climate Change? What 1000 Years of History Tell Us
Climate change refers to a long-term alteration of the Earth’s temperature and weather patterns. We have constantly been told it is our fault that we are warming the Earth and causing the end of the world, whether that’s because of fossil fuels or unsustainable methods.
But hasn’t climate change happened before humans?
Are we really to blame?
What do 1,000 years of history tell us?
A scientific research article, ‘Causes of Climate Change over the Past 1000 Years' [1] assessed reconstructions of the northern hemisphere’s temperature over the past 1000 years (1000–1993).
This showed that before the 17th century, the largest climate change was 0.2°C [1]. However, another model shows that during the same period, the temperature decreased by 0.4°C [1], therefore indicating that these fluctuations are normal. However, between the 1600s and the mid-1900s, there was quite a significant increase of 0.4 °C [1].
Both models also show that there have been cold periods in the 17th and 19th centuries [1], as well as a warm period between 1000 and 1300 [1], further illustrating how fluctuations in climate are regular.
Is it increasing because of the Industrial Revolution?
Now, let’s address the argument that temperatures have increased since the Industrial Revolution (1760–1840). The results show that temperature did increase slightly during this era; however, it also decreased, hence seeming to stabilise [1]. There also seems to be no evident trend or correlation of a significant increase in temperature during the Industrial Revolution period in the context of 1000 years.
From the year 1000 to about the 1890s, the Northern Hemisphere's temperature exhibited gradual fluctuations in temperature that seemed to eventually stabilise through the years. Moreover, the temperature never increased by more than 0.2 °C; however, one model shows it did potentially decrease by about 0.3°C twice (in the 1300s and 1400s), yet it did eventually increase and stabilise [1].
In summary, even though climate changes were prevalent from the year 1000 to the 1890s, there was no clear trend or significant shift in temperature, even during the Industrial Revolution.
Are Humans to Blame?
From the 1890s to 1993, the northern hemisphere's temperature increased significantly by 0.8 °C, which is more than double any increase or decrease in temperature we have seen in the past 1000 years up to 1993 [1]. This is extremely concerning since it only took about 100 years for the temperature to increase like it never has in 1000 years, and it is the first time we see a drastically clear upward trend in temperature.
There was a sign of a decrease in the mid-1900s; however, it quickly resumed its upward trend and has shown no sign of decreasing since [1]. Consequently, this trend correlates with the beginning of coal becoming the leading energy source, followed by the second temperature spike beginning when oil became the most prevalent energy source.
It is evident that since the 1890s, something has caused our climate to increase drastically and continuously, but what?
Is it us? Are we to blame? Or is it just that time in Earth’s history?
To understand this further, let’s investigate what has caused climate change in the past 1000 years.
References
Reference Paper: "Causes of Climate Change over the Past 1000 Years"