Antarctica Gains Ice for the First Time in Years! Does this Disprove Global Warming? No!
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is a critical indicator of climate change, playing a major role in rising global sea levels. Monitoring its changes is vital for understanding global climate change and its impact on coastal areas, communities, and economies.
An Unusual Increase (2021-2022)
Between 2021 and 2022, the AIS experienced an unexpected increase in ice. This was driven by hefty snowfall, sparking questions about whether this trend would continue in 2023 or if it would revert to the usual pattern of ice loss. We look at the paper “Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land” to explore these findings [1].
Three Main Regions of Antarctica
The AIS spans 14 million km² and is divided into three main regions:
· East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS)
· West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS)
· Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS)
The WAIS and APIS account for over 90% of Antarctica’s ice loss [1]. Meanwhile, the EAIS, despite being the largest, has received less attention, even though if it completely melted, it could raise global sea levels by about 52.2 metres [1].
Glaciers that are Vital to Understanding Sea Level Rise
The EAIS has several glaciers that are key to understanding sea level rise [1], including.
· Totten Glacier: Potential sea-level rise of 3.9m [1]
· Denman Glacier: Potential rise of 1.5m [1]
· Moscow Glacier: Potential rise of 1.3m [1]
· Vincennes Bay Glaciers: Potential rise of 0.66m [1]
For reference, scientists estimate that it would take sea levels rising 1 metre for it to impact millions of people.
Accelerating Melting in Key Areas
Findings suggest that many glaciers in the EAIS are melting faster than expected, particularly those in Wilkes Land and Queen Mary Land (districts of Antarctica) [1]. These regions have shown clear signs of instability, such as ice thinning and grounding line retreat, over the past two decades [1]. This is mostly linked to warmer ocean waters melting the ice from below.
Ground line retreat is when the edge of a glacier that rests on solid land shifts back inland due to melting from warm ocean water. This makes the glacier less stable and more likely to slide into the ocean, speeding up ice loss.
Tracking Ice Lost
Data from April 2002 to December 2023 was analysed using an Improved Constrained Point-Mass Model (ICPM) [1]. An ICPM is a method that measures changes in ice mass by analysing tiny shifts in gravity, helping scientists track how much ice is being lost or gained in specific regions.
The results showed
· The Amundsen Sea sector in the WAIS had the largest ice loss of about 3,346.4 gigatons (Gt), contributing about 9.28mm to global sea levels [1].
· Wilkes Land and Queen Mary Land in the EAIS also lost about 482.1 Gt of ice, adding 1.33mm to sea levels [1]. Interestingly, this loss was interrupted by a gain in ice between 2021 and 2023 [1].
Glaciers Losing Ice Faster than Expected
From 2011 to 2020, many once-stable glaciers began losing ice at faster rates:
· Denman Glacier: From a slight gain to losing about 14.3 Gt per year [1].
· Moscow Glacier: Tripling its loss rate to about 5.56 Gt of ice per year [1].
· Totten Glacier: Went from losing about 6.4 Gt of ice per year to about 19.9 Gt of ice per year [1].
· Vincennes Bay: Went from stable to losing about 10.9 Gt per year [1].
These losses are contributing to sea level rise at about 0.14 mm per year [1]. That’s about 18.14mm over 18 years from these glaciers. Even this small amount contributing to sea levels rising can have effects on our oceans and global warming, which we will discuss in a later article. Make sure to subscribe or become a member to stay up to date.
In summary, the regions being assessed showed an overall loss of ice over 18 years; however, from 2021 to 2023, some of the regions gained ice [1]. This may seem like a promising result; however, this is not necessarily the case.
Temporary Ice Gain: A False Sense of Security?
The researchers state that the ice gain from 2021 to 2023 believe it is just a temporary event, rather than a signal of a major reversal of global warming [1].
The reason they believe it won’t continue is that the last 18 years of data show a clear trend of ice loss, not gain [1]. While the temporary snowfall was unexpected, the long-term patterns suggest that melting will continue [1]. However, only further research and monitoring of the region will be able to confirm this.
Why did Antarctica Gain Ice?
But why did Antarctica gain ice? The paper does not state why the area experienced increased snowfall, but a potential reason could still be linked to global warming.
As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, leading to heavier snow or rainfall in some areas. In Antarctica’s freezing temperatures, this extra moisture turns into snow, adding to the ice sheet.
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References
Reference paper “Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land”